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FORCADELL and the University of Barcelona (UB) presented this morning, at a press conference, the Real Estate Market Report: Current Situation and Outlook 2025. Among its main conclusions, the report diagnoses a boom in Spain’s residential sales market while ruling out the existence of a real estate bubble.
The study highlights a context that differs from that of 2007, dismissing economic and property-related reasons that would justify a bubble. Banks are now much more cautious, and the mortgage credit forecast for 2025 stands at €85 billion—50% lower than in 2006 in nominal terms. In addition, household and corporate deposits exceed the amount of credit granted, reflecting a balanced financial system. This is further supported by an economic surplus close to 4% of GDP and expectations that the ECB will lower interest rates, creating a stable scenario that rules out an abrupt fall in prices and sales.
Likewise, the sharp rise in housing prices is due to limited supply rather than excessive demand, with no signs of a significant increase in the former or a sudden decline in the latter. The conclusion is that we are witnessing a real estate boom that will continue at least until the last quarter of 2027, driven largely by a massive shift of young people (under 40) from the rental market to home ownership.
These and other findings of the analysis were the focus of today’s press presentation, led by Ivan Vaqué, CEO of FORCADELL, and Dr. Gonzalo Bernardos, Associate Professor of Economics at UB and Director of the UB Master’s Degree in Real Estate Consulting, Management and Promotion.
1) The existence of a new real estate bubble is ruled out, while the market has been experiencing a boom since the second quarter of 2024. This real estate boom will continue across the country throughout 2026 and is expected to last at least until the last quarter of 2027.
In 2026, housing prices are expected to rise by approximately 8%, while sales will increase by around 7.5%.
3) Next year, transactions will reach 850,000 units — meaning 60,000 more homes will be sold than in the previous year. This will be the third-highest figure in history, surpassed only by 2005 (901,574) and 2006 (955,186).
4) Sales of second-hand homes will set a new record for the second consecutive year, reaching 765,000 units.
5) The main drivers of the market will once again be the scarcity and high cost of rental housing, rental prices higher than mortgage payments, strong job stability, an increase in real wages, lower mortgage interest rates, and a rise in the amount of credit granted by banks.
6) There will be a sharp rise in home purchases by people under 40. In these transactions, the limited savings of young buyers will be compensated by financial contributions from their parents. In fact, 2026 will see the largest transfer of capital from parents to children in the country’s history.
7) Rent caps are not leading to price containment. In Barcelona, their implementation would imply reductions of more than 25% in many cases, yet the market has shown little adjustment, as many contracts remain in force or part of the supply has shifted to short-term rentals.
8) The supply of rental housing has fallen significantly in recent years. Landlords face higher risks and lower profitability, including the inability to evict vulnerable tenants and the prospect of rent controls. At the same time, the public sector is barely increasing new housing construction, with an annual average of only 2,484 units between 2019 and 2024, contributing to ongoing market scarcity.
9) In Barcelona, short-term rentals have become an increasingly popular alternative to traditional long-term leases. This trend is driven by two exceptional factors: a large transient population and rent control. The shift of homes from regular to occasional rentals allows landlords to bypass current rent limits, although in most Spanish cities this practice remains limited due to low demand.
10) Rent control has eliminated the historical advantage that long-term tenants once enjoyed, as they used to pay lower increases than new tenants in exchange for maintaining the property and good relations with the landlord. Now, price caps apply equally to renewals and new contracts, erasing that distinction.
11) The increase in tourist accommodation (VUTs) is not one of the causes behind the rise in rental prices in recent years. According to the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE), as of May 2025 there were 381,037 VUTs in Spain, representing only 1.43% of the total housing stock and 7.01% of all rental properties. This small share makes it unrealistic to attribute to them a decisive role in the 94.7% increase in average rental prices over the past decade.
12) Stricter taxation on tourist accommodation (VUTs) could reduce their supply but is unlikely to increase the stock of conventional rental housing. Most of these properties will either be sold or converted into short-term rentals, given their appeal to displaced workers and students, the lower profitability of traditional leasing, and landlords’ concerns about non-payment or lengthy eviction processes.
13) The Spanish commercial real estate market approaches 2026 on a solid footing, though with specific challenges depending on the segment. The logistics sector remains structurally strong, offices are moving toward more flexible and efficient models, and retail spaces are consolidating their recovery under new consumption dynamics.
14) The Spanish logistics market continues to show strong momentum, characterized by decentralization toward peripheral areas where available land and lower costs encourage new developments. Intense investment activity and the expected closing of multiple portfolios in the short term confirm investor confidence in this segment.
15) The shortage of prime-quality assets in top locations is expected to exert slight upward pressure on rents, consolidating the logistics sector as one of the most resilient and strategic segments of the corporate real estate market.
16) In the office segment, the increase in relocations involving larger spaces observed in 2025 could mark a turning point, indicating a reactivation of demand for bigger premises and a gradual return to in-person work models.
17) In Barcelona, the challenge will be to maintain the downward trend in office vacancy observed throughout the current year, particularly in the 22@ district and the city center. In Madrid, the positive cycle is expected to continue, with annual take-up exceeding 500,000 m².
18) The retail premises market in Barcelona has shown steady reactivation throughout 2025, both in leasing and sales, and especially in investment. Demand has become more specialized, prioritizing operational efficiency, visibility, and contractual flexibility.
19) The physical store will remain a strategic asset in 2026, not only as a sales point but also as a key component of urban logistics and brand experience.
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